The current WhatWG proposals called “HTML 5″ have been stirring up a lot of polarizing speech lately

Positive attention to new technologies is only beneficial if Adobe has a clear monetization strategy for them. Therefore will introduce a controversy and try our best to make it “polarizing.” Y’know, the same way Fox News fairly presents “controversies.”

It’s hard for Adobe to have an official opinion

Unofficially, Adobe will do everything possible to undermine the excitement over HTML5 and torpedo it at all cost.

whatever this consortium of minority browser vendors chooses to do

MINORITY. Get it? Unsupported! Unofficial! What happens if the minority goes away? Don’t buy Tucker. Buy GM.

seeing what the final agreement turns out to be, and how it is eventually manifested in the world, both are prerequisites for practical tool-making

Given that we are a tool vendor, that is the only matter of interest. And since we largely control the tool market for our tech, this is a major threat to us. We will rely on Microsoft being slow or reluctant to include technologies pioneered elsewhere, allowing us to continue our symbiotic relationship with IE.

Still, I’m glad that an analyst asked a question about it at the quarterly financial call. Here’s what Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen had to say

It is wise to rely on what a threatened tool vendor CEO has to say about a competing technology and its future viability.

I think the challenge for HTLM 5 will continue to be how do you get a consistent display of HTML 5 across browsers

The biggest challenge for HTML5 will be the constant undermining from companies that see their current tool strategy and quasi-monopoly threatened, such as us.

And when you think about when the rollout plans that are currently being talked about, they feel like it might be a decade before HTML 5 sees standardization across the number of browsers that are going to be out there.

If we keep repeating the fear of how long it might take to implement again and again, it will take even longer. Your hesitation equals cold hard cash for us.

we still think that actually the fragmentation of browsers makes Flash even more important rather than less important

When asked about a potential competitor, I always mention how its rise will make our product more important. Because that’s what the board pays me to do.

Adobe’s about communicating your ideas — publishing to various channels — not just about Flash. Dreamweaver, ColdFusion and the imaging tools all benefit from an increase in HTML.

Hey guys, remember ColdFusion? … Guys?

Adobe profits from easing communication in general

Adobe profits from easing positive communication about Adobe products. And sowing FUD about competitors. But since Slashdot posters ran the term ‘FUD’ into the ground ten years ago, you can’t use it anymore without being derided. SCORE!

Flash is a strong bet for emerging platforms

I’m high as a kite.

I’m increasingly uncomfortable with calling the WhatWG proposals “HTML 5″ though

Giving something that might become a standard the appearance of legitimacy is dangerous to our business model. Open standards are the enemy of our proprietary tools.

What counts is not a press release, but a realworld deliverable

What is not deliverable, for instance, is Flash on iPhone and possibly many other portable devices, which appear to be the biggest growth market/land rush of the next decade. Given that we have now failed for thirteen years to make Flash plugins usable on desktops with fast CPUs/tons of RAM, clearly realworld deliverable Flash on portable devices is trivial. Allowing an open competitor like HTML5 to dominate that market would be fatal for us.

Shantanu’s last point in there really resonates with me

Please give me a raise.

this whole “HTML5″ campaign will likely benefit Flash, because few remain who oppose the idea that “experience matters”

Our experience in making cold hard cash from selling Flash tools matters the most. Using “scare quotes” and belittling browser makers will help de-legitimize HTML5.

Things are quite a bit different than five years ago.

We now have a virtual monopoly on serving casual video on the web. We will fight anything that threatens us. IE browser share is decreasing rapidly, and with it the necessity of using a helper technology such as Flash.

iPhone helped to radically increase the number of phones with Flash support

I don’t even know what my own company is making. But I will continue to use the term “realworld deliverables.”

the “HTML5″ publicity helps marginalize those few who still argue that images, animation, audio/video and rich interactivity have no place on the web

HTML5 uses open standards to play those file formats natively, which could severely undercut our future proprietary tool/server profits.

Flash will be able to deliver on those heightened expectations, regardless of what each separate browser engine does.

Fuck you Safari, Chrome, Mozilla,  WhatWG.

– A